KEOI Daily Briefing · Oct 14

KEOI Daily Briefing · Morning · Oct 14

Top lines

- The Fed debate sharpens ahead of tonight's September CPI: Williams floats one more hike this year, while WSJ uses the Nobel Prize to press Warsh on communication.

- Big banks posted $32 billion in combined Q3 profit, but bond trading missed and executives warned high rates are starting to bite clients.

- U.S. defense startups are flocking to Taiwan to build China-free drones; Japan's central bank leans against a back-to-back October hike.

1. The Nobel Prize Message for Kevin Warsh

Greg Ip argues the Nobel for Michael Woodford validates clear central-bank communication, while Chair Kevin Warsh has ended forward guidance. Economists expected September CPI at +0.6% on the month and 3.6% year-on-year ahead of the Oct. 27-28 Fed meeting.

Original: read here

2. Treasury Yields Mostly Lower Ahead of Expected CPI Increase

Treasury yields were mostly lower before the CPI release, with the 10-year at 5.216%. Surveys expected headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year-on-year, with core at 2.5%.

Original: read here

3. One More U.S. Interest-Rate Increase May Be Appropriate, Fed's Williams Says

New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate increase this year may be appropriate, with further moves possible in 2027. He is watching AI-driven demand most closely for inflation, while noting underlying inflation measures have come down.

Original: read here

4. Rising Interest Rates Threaten to Spoil the Party for Big Banks

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo posted combined Q3 profit of $32 billion, up 14%. Bond-trading revenue missed expectations, and executives warned higher rates could pressure consumers and commercial clients.

Original: read here

5. U.S. Defense Startups Flock to Taiwan to Build China-Free Drones

At least 13 U.S.-Taiwan drone agreements have been signed since September 2025 as startups seek non-China components. Taiwan has allocated over $7 billion for drones over six years, though labor shortages and a withheld $14 billion U.S. arms sale complicate the build-out.

Original: read here

6. China is turning trash into treasure on a vast scale

The Economist reports China is scaling up recycling — EV batteries in particular — to secure supplies of critical minerals. Full text was paywall-verification blocked at briefing time; summary is based on the official RSS description.

Original: read here

7. BOJ is said to lean against back-to-back rate hike in October

Bank of Japan officials are leaning against a second consecutive rate hike at the Oct. 30 meeting, eyeing December instead, according to people familiar with the matter cited by The Japan Times. Governor Ueda told the Diet underlying inflation is now quite close to 2%.

Original: read here