Research · Puffin Commutes Could Trigger Sudden Ecosystem Collapse, Mathematical Model Warns

Research · Puffin Commutes Could Trigger Sudden Ecosystem Collapse, Mathematical Model Warns

A mathematical ecology study published on October 17 in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution (Parida, Rani & Singh, 2026; DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2026.1896471) warns that the daily commuting behaviour of central-place foragers such as Atlantic puffins can push a predator–prey system across a tipping point into sudden collapse. Using a slow–fast modified Leslie–Gower model with a Beddington–DeAngelis functional response, the authors show that when breeding seabirds must repeatedly travel between a fixed colony and shifting feeding grounds, the system can develop hidden bifurcation structures: populations that look stable for long stretches can flip abruptly once commuting distance, prey availability or foraging time crosses a threshold. The result matters beyond puffins — central-place foraging is shared by seals, penguins and many seabirds whose colonies anchor marine food webs, so a model that predicts regime shifts from commuting costs gives conservation managers a potential early-warning variable to monitor as ocean conditions change.

Source: https://scienmag.com/puffin-commutes-could-trigger-sudden-ecosystem-collapse-new-mathematical-model-warns/