Research · Atlantic Currents Can Recover From Severe Weakening, a New Model Study Finds

Research · Atlantic Currents Can Recover From Severe Weakening, a New Model Study Finds

A study led by the Danish Meteorological Institute and published in Science Advances on October 14 finds no sign of an irreversible tipping point for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the current system that carries warm water from the tropics toward the Arctic and keeps European winters mild. In the model, the circulation weakens sharply at very high levels of warming but begins regaining strength as soon as temperatures fall.

The reassurance comes with long timescales attached. Full recovery could take several centuries even after cooling starts, and the effects of a weakened current — disrupted rainfall patterns and faster coastal sea-level rise — would persist in the meantime. The authors also stress that one driver of the weakening cannot be undone on human timescales at all: the Greenland ice sheet, once melted, would not be restored even if the warming trend reversed.

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